How close does the concept of a full Ukrainian victory seem, and is it achievable in the present geopolitical reality? Charles Kupchan, a prominent figure in international relations, shares his perspective on the ongoing Ukrainian crisis, potential scenarios for its resolution, and the role that the West, particularly the United States, can play therein.
At a conference organized by the Institute for Politics and Society in Prague, Kupchan emphasized that while Ukraine's quest to restore its territorial integrity is fully understandable and morally supported, reality may demand compromises and diplomacy. "When we talk about a complete Ukrainian victory, we are talking about what is desirable and just, but it doesn’t seem to be entirely achievable, and that could be dangerous," he noted.
In the context of the upcoming U.S. presidential elections, Kupchan pointed to a potential course American aid to Ukraine might take should Donald Trump be re-elected to the presidency. "He would likely seek to broker some deal with Putin, without necessarily halting aid to Ukraine entirely. Nevertheless, the primary goal for him would be to begin dialogues with Russia," Kupchan explained, presuming that issues related to Ukraine could play a pivotal role in the campaign, especially in comparison to migration to the U.S. and domestic policy priorities.
Professor Kupchan further highlighted that a willingness to compromise and heed wise counsel is key now. Recognizing realities, including the fact that the conflict in Ukraine cannot be resolved through military means, and adopting a diplomatic path may provide the most realistic chance of securing long-term stability and safety in the region.
All this occurs in times where the world is witnessing heightened tensions and instability, and the approach to global conflicts requires cautious navigation between ideals and reality, to ensure the security and prosperity of all involved parties. Kupchan’s view provides insight into the complex decision-making and diplomacy that might be key in finding a sustainable way forward in the relations among the West, Ukraine, and Russia.